We’ve invited AULABLOG’s contributors to share with us a prediction or two for the new year in their areas of expertise. Here are their predictions.
Photo credit: titoalfredo / Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA
U.S.-Latin America relations will deteriorate further as there will be little movement in Washington on immigration reform, the pace of deportations, narcotics policy, weapons flows, or relations with Cuba. Steady progress toward consolidating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), however, will catalyze a shared economic agenda with market-oriented governments in Chile, Mexico, Peru and possibly Colombia, depending on how election-year politics affects that country’s trade stance.
– Eric Hershberg
The energy sector will be at the core of the economic and political crises many countries in the Americas will confront in 2014. Argentina kicked off the New Year with massive blackouts and riots. Bolivia, the PetroCaribe nations, and potentially even poster child Chile are next.
– Thomas Andrew O’Keefe
Unprecedented success of Mexico’s Peña Nieto passing structural reforms requiring constitutional amendments that eluded three previous administrations spanning 18 years, are encouraging for the country’s prospects of faster growth. Key for 2014: quality and expediency of secondary implementing legislation and effectiveness in execution of the reforms.
– Manuel Suarez-Mier
Mexico may be leading the way, at least in the short term, with exciting energy sector reforms, which if fully executed, could help bring Mexico’s oil industry into the 21st Century, even if this means discarding, at least partly, some of the rhetorical nationalism which made Mexico’s inefficient and romanticized parastatal oil company – Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) – a symbol of Mexican national pride. Let’s see if some of the proceeds from the reforms and resulting production boosts can fortify ideals of the Mexican Revolution by generating more social programs to diminish inequality, and getting rid of the bloat and corruption at PEMEX.
– Todd Eisenstadt
Brazil is without a doubt “the country of soccer,” as Brazilians like to say. If Brazil wins the world cup in June, Dilma will also have an easy win in the presidential elections. But if it loses, Dilma will have to deal with new protests and accusations of big spending to build soccer fields rather than improving education and health.
– Luciano Melo
Brazilian foreign policy is unlikely to undergo deep changes, although emphasis could shift in some areas. Brazil will insist on multilateral solutions – accepting, for example, the invitation to participate at a “five-plus-one” meeting on Syria. The WTO Doha Round will remain a priority. Foreign policy does not appear likely to be a core issue in the October general elections. If economic difficulties do not grow, Brazil will continue to upgrade its international role.
– Tullo Vigevani
In U.S.-Cuba relations, expect agreements on Coast Guard search and rescue, direct postal service, oil spill prevention, and – maybe – counternarcotics. Warming relations could set the stage for releasing Alan Gross (and others?) in exchange for the remaining Cuban Five (soon to be three). But normalizing relations is not in the cards until Washington exchanges its regime change policy for one of real coexistence. A handshake does not make for a détente.
– William M. LeoGrande
A decline in the flow of Venezuelan resources to Cuba will impact the island’s economy, but the blow will be cushioned by continued expansion of Brazilian investment and trade and deepened economic ties with countries outside the Americas.
– Eric Hershberg
In a non-election year in Venezuela, President Maduro will begin to incrementally increase the cost of gasoline at the pump, currently the world’s lowest, and devalue the currency – but neither will solve deep economic troubles. Dialogue with the opposition, a new trend, will endure but experience fits and starts. The country will not experience a social explosion, and new faces will join Capriles to round out a more diverse opposition leadership. Barring a crisis requiring cooperation, tensions with the United States will remain high but commerce will be unaffected.
– Michael McCarthy
Colombia’s negotiations with the FARC won’t be resolved by the May 2014 elections, which President Santos will win easily – most likely in the first round. There will be more interesting things going on in the legislative races. Former President Uribe will win a seat in the Senate. Other candidates in his party will win as well – probably not as many as he would like but enough for him to continue being a big headache for the Santos administration. Colombia’s economy will continue to improve, and the national football team will put up a good fight in the World Cup.
– Elyssa Pachico
Awareness of violence against women will keep increasing. Unfortunately, the criminalization of abortion or, in other words, forcing pregnancy on women, will still be treated by many policy makers and judges as an issue unrelated to gender violence.
– Macarena Saez
In the North American partnership, NAFTA’s anniversary offers a chance to reflect on the trilateral relationship – leaving behind the campaign rhetoric and looking forward. The leaders will hold a long-delayed summit and offer some small, but positive, measures on education and infrastructure. North America will be at the center of global trade negotiations.
– Tom Long
The debate over immigration reform in Washington will take on the component parts of the Senate’s comprehensive bill. Both parties could pat themselves on the back heading into the mid-term elections by working out a deal, most likely trading enhanced security measures for a more reasonable but still-imposing pathway to citizenship.
– Aaron Bell
The new government in Honduras will try to deepen neoliberal policies, but new political parties, such as LIBRE and PAC, will make the new Congress more deliberative. Low economic growth and deterioration in social conditions will present challenges to governability.
– Hugo Noé Pino
In the northern tier of Central America, despite new incoming presidents in El Salvador and Honduras, impunity and corruption will remain unaddressed. Guatemala’s timid reform will be the tiny window of hope in the region. The United States will still appear clueless about the region’s growing governance crisis.
– Héctor Silva
Increased tension will continue in the Dominican Republic in the aftermath of the Constitutional Tribunal’s decision to retroactively strip Dominicans of Haitian descent of citizenship. The implementation of the ruling in 2014 through repatriation will be met with international pressure for the Dominican government to reverse the ruling.
— Maribel Vásquez
In counternarcotics policy, eyes will turn to Uruguay to see how the experiment with marijuana plays out. Unfortunately, it is too small an experiment to tell us anything. Instead, the focus will become the growing problem of drug consumption in the region.
– Steven Dudley
Eyeing a late-year general election and possible third term, Bolivian President Evo Morales will be in campaign mode throughout 2014. With no real challengers, Morales will win, but not in a landslide, as he fights with dissenting indigenous groups and trade unionists, a more divisive congress, the U.S., and Brazil.
– Robert Albro
In Ecuador, with stable economic numbers throughout 2014, President Rafael Correa will be on the offensive with his “citizen revolution,” looking to solidify his political movement in local elections, continuing his war on the press, while promoting big new investments in hydroelectric power.
– Robert Albro
Determined to expand Peru’s investment in extractive industries and maintain strong economic growth, President Ollanta Humalla will apply new pressure on opponents of proposed concessions, leading to fits and starts of violent conflict throughout 2014, with the president mostly getting his way.
– Robert Albro